Журнал географии и стихийных бедствий
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Dangers in forecasting: Forecasting and alternatives to the scientific approach

Peter Nigel Cameron

Theoilandgasindustry isamazinglyunabletopredictoilprices.Whatisprobablythelargestindustryintheworld, with the biggest companies and corporations in the world, employing large large numbers (thousands) of bright people at high salaries and using large sophisticated and complex computing power, yet they fail to forecast the price of their one product(crude oil). Notonly the oil industry but many other industries throughout society and history consistently failto forecast correctly. Forecasts are drivenbyhistoric data and trends andarebasedon a scientific big data analytical approach.