Семейная медицина и медицинские исследования
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Prediction of Medical Students' Performance in the Medical School

Faisal Abdullatif Alnasir and Ahmed Abdel-Karim Jaradat

Getting admission to medical college is an arduous process and an expensive vocation to choose. One of the early steps in that process is to pass the test that more medical colleges are embracing. Since its inception, MCAT has undergone many revisions for its content and validity enabling it to select the appropriate students while reducing student attrition rate.

This work is implemented in the College of Medicine of the Arabian Gulf University to study the possibility of early prediction of non-suitable students who may not be able to consummate their medical course and to investigate the extent to which the pre-admission tools and MCAT sub-scores predict the overall students’ academic performance. In addition, to explore the influence of Year1 basic science courses on students’ achievements in various stages of the medical school such as; at the B.Sc., in the clinical rotation and at the MD phase.

A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 107 students who were enrolled in the academic year 2002-2003. Their academic records were traced from admission until graduation in 2008-2009.

The results showed that the student attrition rate is 12%, which is higher than reported values. It was also found that the AGU-MCAT English test, and the high school grades can predict students’ performance in Year1 (R2=37.6%) while AGU-MCAT science test had a moderate effect (R2=21.2%). The Year1 AGPA predicted students’ performance at the B.Sc. (R2=54.9%). The Interview part of the AGU-MCAT and the B.Sc. scores are paramount prognosticators of the students’ performance in the clerkship Phase. In the MD the major predictor was the B.Sc. scores (R2=77.6%) while high school grades, high school science grades and the AGU-MCAT had very little effect.

In conclusion, both knowledge and personal attributes tested during admission as well as Year 1 are important in predicting the student’s future success. The attrition rate, which was found to be high, could have been averted if the prone student has been discovered early or felicitous admission procedures were made for the selection of appropriate students.