Журнал географии и стихийных бедствий
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System for prediction of fly by near-earth objects

Kirubakaran Sebastian

Statement of the Problem: Asteroids pose a complexity in understanding why and when they drift away from their orbits and possess a threat to earth. So, it is essential to analyze the asteroid behavior, to perform a likelihood estimation theory on planets and asteroids. The behavior of planets is well known, and it can be predicted too. This theory is being formulated as a suggestion to the calculation of a heavenly body hit from its neighboring allies. Since this theory revolves around the likelihood calculation, the relations are made based on astronomical observation. It can be said that in other words, likelihood can be interpreted as a threat parameter which purely depends on mutual gravitational attraction between bodies.

Methodology & Theoretical Orientation: Based on the actual astronomical observation, and effect of these parameters, this threat parameter can be related or formulated as follows: (i) Parameters under the influence of gravity (ii) Parameters under the orbital influence. The above model holds good for planets, dwarf planets and moons whose fundamental parameters like mass, gravity, orbital time, orbital speed is comparatively higher. Moreover, the above model holds good for heavenly objects whose shape is spherical, spheroid, circular.

Findings: But asteroids, comets and meteoroids are irregular shaped bodies and hence representing these bodies and assuming them to be spherical becomes absurd. Hence for the modification, the irregularity of surface, the closest approach to sun, the exorbitant orbital speeds are taken into consideration. An asteroid which is irregularly shaped and entire mass of the asteroid is pointed outwards.

Conclusion & Significance: The system developed provides an exhaustive prediction for numerous aspects of asteroid dynamics. The likelihood estimation also gives detailed information on threat posed by such Near-Earth Objects (NEOs). These algorithms and methods when appended and upgraded with existing satellite and warning system will provide a better and safer earth from its potential hazardous allies.