Журнал географии и стихийных бедствий
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The Effects of Climate Change Atmospheric Tempreture, Rainfall Pattern and Land Use Malaria Incidence Rates: A Retrospective Trend Analysis over a Ten-Year Period 2010-2020 in Luapula and Southern Zambia

Joshua Kanjanga Phiri*, Rosemary Ndonyo Likwa

This study examines the impact of climate change on the incidence of malaria in Zambia. The study focused on variations in prevalence influenced by climatic and environmental factors. This study adopted a retrospective comparative analytical approach utilizing 157 case records from each province. The survey investigated temperature, rainfall seasonal variations, and land use activities. The findings revealed a fluctuating trend in rainfall from 2010-2020, with a significant association between malaria incidence and rainfall (p value=0.041). In 2019, southern provinces experienced the highest percentage of drought (64%), resulting in reduced malaria transmission due to unfavorable environmental conditions for mosquito larvae. Demographic data highlight an urban-rural divide, with Luapula Province exhibiting a greater number of malaria cases among children under five years of age compared with the Southern Zambia. These results emphasize the critical role of climate change and local factors in malaria transmission dynamics.