Журнал географии и стихийных бедствий
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Влияние изменения климата на температуру воздуха, характер осадков и землепользование. Уровень заболеваемости малярией: ретроспективный анализ тенденций за десятилетний период 2010–2020 гг. в Луапуле и Южной Замбии

Джошуа Канжанга Фири*, Розмари Ндоньо Ликва

This study examines the impact of climate change on the incidence of malaria in Zambia. The study focused on variations in prevalence influenced by climatic and environmental factors. This study adopted a retrospective comparative analytical approach utilizing 157 case records from each province. The survey investigated temperature, rainfall seasonal variations, and land use activities. The findings revealed a fluctuating trend in rainfall from 2010-2020, with a significant association between malaria incidence and rainfall (p value=0.041). In 2019, southern provinces experienced the highest percentage of drought (64%), resulting in reduced malaria transmission due to unfavorable environmental conditions for mosquito larvae. Demographic data highlight an urban-rural divide, with Luapula Province exhibiting a greater number of malaria cases among children under five years of age compared with the Southern Zambia. These results emphasize the critical role of climate change and local factors in malaria transmission dynamics.