Журнал географии и стихийных бедствий
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Population Recovery in U.S. Communities Affected by Tornadoes, 2000-2010

Michel Stimers1*, Bimal Kanti Paul2, Shakil Kashem2, Max Lu2, Mohmmad Sharif3

We investigated the demographic changes in American communities impacted by tornadoes from 2000 to 2010, exploring the factors influencing population recovery in tornado-affected communities, considering short-term (within one year) and long-term (2–10 years) outcomes. To identify significant contributors to population recovery, we analyzed seven predictor variables using logistic regression models, including tornado strength, community size, population trend and state status (Sunbelt or Snowbelt). The data encompassed 516 tornado-affected communities across the conterminous United States. Our findings revealed that about 55.81% of the communities experienced no significant population change immediately after the tornado event. However, 44.19% of the communities witnessed a population decline and only 10.66% fully recovered within 2–10 years. Results indicated community size and trends were pivotal in population recovery. Communities with negative population trends, especially those with fewer than 5,000 residents, faced significant challenges in regaining their pre-tornado population size within 1 year. The data did not show a significant difference in population recovery between communities in the Sunbelt and Snowbelt regions. The study highlights the importance of community-level factors in shaping population recovery dynamics following tornado events. Understanding these factors can aid community leaders and disaster managers formulate effective strategies to retain populations and encourage rapid recovery. Although certain limitations exist due to data availability, future researchers could explore additional factors, such as post-tornado policies and socioeconomic variables, to gain comprehensive insights into post-disaster population dynamics. Our research contributes valuable to social science disaster research, helping communities build resilience in the face of tornado hazards.