Журнал алкоголизма и наркотической зависимости
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The Effect of Gorbachev’s Anti-alcohol Campaign on Road Traffic Accidents Mortality in Belarus.

Razvodovsky YE

Background: The former Soviet republic Belarus has one of the highest road traffic fatality rates due to drunk driving, poor road conditions, and an out-dated vehicle fleet.

Aim: The aim of the present paper was to analyse the trends in BAC-positive and BAC-negative road traffic accidents mortality in Belarus in relation to aggregate-level alcohol consumption.

Method: Trends in aggregate alcohol consumption and BAC-positive and BAC-negative road traffic accidents mortality rates from 1979 to 2007 were analysed in order to asses bivariate relationship between the two time series.

Results: The outcome indicated statistically significant cross-correlation between alcohol consumption levels and number of BAC-positive fatal road traffic accidents at zero (r=0.42; SE=0.20) and at first lag (r=0.57; SE=0.20). At the same time, there was no relation between alcohol consumption level and BAC-negative fatal road traffic accidents.

Conclusion: This study suggests that the overall level of alcohol consumption is an important determinant of alcohol-related road traffic accidents mortality rates.