Журнал географии и стихийных бедствий
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Typhoon Mawar Enables an Assessment of Cycas micronesica Conservation Plans

Anders Lindström1,2, Irene Terry1,3, Benjamin Deloso1,4, William Tang1,5, John Donaldson1,6, Thomas Marler1,7*

Typhoon Mawar damaged Guam’s northern forests on 24 May 2023. This disturbance was the first major typhoon to test the island’s Cycas micronesica population resilience since the cycad-specific armored scale Aulacaspis yasumatsui pest invaded the island in 2003. This tropical cyclone has enabled an assessment of conservation actions initially designed to mitigate biotic damage to the host cycad population by chronic insect infestations as well as population-level responses to the typhoon. The incidence of windsnap and defoliation during Typhoon Mawar were increased when compared to historical typhoons, but the incidence of windthrow was decreased. The damage aligned with our previously published predictions based on scale-induced changes in stem and leaf traits, illuminating the importance of scientific evidence to steer conservation decisions. The assessment of post-typhoon damage shows that current conservation interventions are not effectively reducing the extinction risk for C. micronesica. The lessons learned from Typhoon Mawar point to the need to more effectively address the non-native insect infestations as the primary driver of population decline, and may aid conservationists to better prepare for recurring cyclones and develop more tailored conservation approaches to mitigate major threats to species persistence.